Paradise Sinks in the Pacific

Kiribati, a small island paradise in the South Pacific, will disappear under a gradual deluge of water in less than fifty years due to an increase in the sea level caused by the effects of climate change.

The island’s inhabitants, some 110 thousand people concentrated in 33 atolls and a volcanic island, begin to imagine their lives outside of their presently known world when confronting the theories of scientists and the president of the country, Anote Tong.

Tong has initiated an international tour to look for a new homeland that could shelter its displaced citizens, and so far only New Zealand has agreed to help the Kiribatis with their exodus.

Tong’s frustration with the lack of solidarity is clear in his critiques of the “powerful countries” that are sending his struggling citizens financial aid that would not be necessary if the countries simply limited their gas emissions.

He states that of all of the contamination produced in the world, only 0.6 percent comes from the small archipelagos of the South Pacific, although they are the ones that have to pay for the adverse effects of climate change.

The primary income of Kiribati comes from three groups of islands, the Gilbert, the most densely populated; the Phoenix, located in the center of the archipelago; and the Line islands, whose income comes from tourism and coconuts, in addition to exterior support that represents almost 30 percent of the gross domestic product (GDP)

Building a temporary reinforcement dike in the Gilbert would cost more than double the GDP of the country, which is the second lowest in the world in relation to purchasing power parity according to data from the World Bank.

Its poverty, the worst among all its neighbors, impedes the government from enacting temporary solutions, forcing it only to consider leaving for other islands. The highest point in the county is one of the country’s six airports and is just barely above the eight-foot sea level, which is within reach of any natural disaster.

The threat, which has has been repeatedly emphasized by Tong, is not exclusive of Kiribati, other countries in the region will have to face it sooner or later.

The issue was discussed in the forum on climate change that took place at the beginning of the year in Bangkok, at which the experts concluded that the inhabitants of the small islands in the Pacific would become a new class of refugees, those that don’t have a country because their islands no longer exist.

In the Pacific many of the nations are at risk such as Tonga, the French Polynesian islands, Tuvalu and the Cook Islands, and on the other side of the world the threat is no less worse where the Caribbean, the Bahamas and Jamaica are also in danger.

Between the possible solutions presented, they found that the concentration of the population on the bigger islands above sea level could quickly rise due to immigration.

These countries, which are considered the most beautiful and heavenly in the world, which include thousands of people who have lived there for generations, will have to abandon the islands to take refuge in other places.

This apocalyptic vision of Kiribati’s future is not new; in 1989 a report from the United Nations noted that it would be one of the first countries to be devoured by the ocean. Ten years later, the prediction started to come true when two of the uninhabited islands disappeared under water. Tebua and Abanuea, whose name ironically means “the long-lasting beach”, were the first victims of the gradual, but constant, rise in sea level.

Even the government of Kiribati’s neighbor, the island nation of Vanuatu, evacuated inhabitants of its lower altitude islands as a precaution – although the land remained above sea level.

The Ministerial Conference on Environment and Development in Asia and the Pacific, held in Kitakyushu, Japan, in September of 2000, concluded that the majority of Pacific archipelagos were threatened by the rising sea level.

The biggest concerns for these nations are the inhabitants, whose farms and communities are concentrated in coastal areas, who are the most vulnerable.

However, scientists that participated in the conference pointed out the complicated task of determining the severity of a problem that has more factors than simply the rate at which the ice caps melt and the rise in the ocean temperatures.

The South Pacific Regional Environment Program estimates that in the next century the sea level will have risen 1.5 feet and will continue to rise – the observed increase in sea level is a result of warming that accumulated over the past several decades.

The changing sea level is not Kiribati’s only problem. In 1988, the government was forced to relocate more than five thousand people in an attempt to curb overpopulation. There are currently around 49 people per square mile, a population density greater than that of the United States, with 15 people per square mile.

Although they neighbor giants like China and Australia, the Kiribati Islands are almost completely isolated in their disappearance as a nation, repeating the legendary history of Atlantis, damned to be forgotten forever.